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  • Title: Food and population: beyond five billion.
    Author: Hendry P.
    Journal: Popul Bull; 1988 Apr; 43(2):3-39. PubMed ID: 12341721.
    Abstract:
    The developing countries, with about 3/4 of the world's population, account for less than 1/2 of the production of major food crops. The Third World's per capita food production of 260 kilograms in 1983 was only 1/3 of that in the developed countries. Yet China and India, the most populous countries in the world, have cut fertility rates and moved to food self-sufficiency. An illustration of the food/population dynamic is that although production of food staples in North Africa and the Middle East is projected to expand at about the same rate as that of Asia, about 2.9% annually, owing to a much more rapid rate of population increase, they will achieve only a 0.2% increase in output per person per year, compared with a 1.4% annual growth rate in Asia. In the longer term, higher dietary levels per capita for a world population double that of the present would imply at least a tripling of demand for dietary staples. But more intensive cultivation would place natural resources, many already degraded, under much greater stress. Balancing population, food, and resources for sustained survival is a continual process. The principle cause of hunger and malnutrition is poverty; it is more determinative of nutritional status than aggregate food production.
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