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  • Title: Levels of agricultural development and patterns of population growth in Nepal.
    Author: Shrestha DP, Rayappa PH.
    Journal: Econ J Nepal; 1990; 13(2):97-106. PubMed ID: 12344931.
    Abstract:
    In Nepal, 94% of the total population is rural and 90% is engaged in agricultural employment. The population growth rate has increased to 2.66% during 1971-81 due to declines in mortality. Growth has been uneven by region. These conditions prompted the interest in analyzing the patterns of population growth by levels of agricultural development for the 75 districts of Nepal for 1971-81. Factor analysis was used to obtain the ranking of agricultural development for each region and to analyze regional differences. Indirect demographic measures were used to estimate the rate of increase of the population, crude death rate (CDR), crude birth rate, rate of natural increase, and rate of net migration. The hypotheses assumed cause and effect between agricultural development and population growth and reciprocal causation. Agricultural development affects fertility in an uncertain and indirect way. Agricultural development is likely to increase food availability, which in turn reduces malnutrition and declines in infant mortality. Agricultural development and mortality levels are inversely related. The nature of the relationship between agricultural development and the rate of natural increase is uncertain; observed differentials may be insignificant in the early stages of development. Agricultural development leads to an increase in demand for labor. Agricultural development and population growth are positively related. There were 12 measures of agricultural development used to obtain factor scores. The results show 69% of the variance is explained by three factors of agricultural development. Factors 1 and 2 were used to classify districts into 3 levels of development. Higher agricultural development is related to clear declines in the CDR and an increasing rate of natural increase. Net in-migration is positively related to agricultural development, i.e., high agricultural development is associated with a high rate of total increase. Population density follows a similar pattern. 17 out of 18 districts in Terai region are in the high agricultural development stage. 50% of districts in hill and mountain regions are in the low grouping. Correlation coefficients confirm findings about the relationship between population growth and agricultural development.
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