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  • Title: Distribution of closed birth intervals with some biosocial components: a stochastic model and its application.
    Author: Pandey A, Dwivedi SN, Mishra RN.
    Journal: J Math Sociol; 1990; 16(1):89-106. PubMed ID: 12345039.
    Abstract:
    Data on birth intervals are said to detect current changes in underlying fertility behavior earlier than birth rates and are used especially in developing countries to evaluate family planning programs. Birth interval information comes mostly from retrospective inquiries into maternity histories. Accounting for adolescent sterility and temporary separation between partners, a stochastic model is developed and presented capable of describing the variation in the length of closed birth intervals by birth order for women of a given marriage duration. This model may be used to analyze data on birth intervals in any population where women are exposed to the risk of conception soon after marriage. It is applied to survey data from northern India, whereby the risk of conception and risk of assuming susceptibility to conception following adolescent sterility are estmated along with the maximum duration of adolescent sterility among women with varying ages at consummation of marriage.
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