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  • Title: [Probability distribution of population forecasts].
    Author: Alders M, De Beer J.
    Journal: Maandstat Bevolking; 1998 Apr; 46(4):8-11. PubMed ID: 12348624.
    Abstract:
    "On the basis of assumptions on the probability distribution of future fertility, life expectancy and net migration, the probability distribution of the future size and age structure of the population [of the Netherlands] can be calculated.... The calculations are based on three main assumptions.... On the basis of these assumptions it can be calculated that the probability of the population size in 2010 lying between 15.8 million and 17.2 million is 90%." (EXCERPT)
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