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  • Title: Branching process models for surveillance of infectious diseases controlled by mass vaccination.
    Author: Farrington CP, Kanaan MN, Gay NJ.
    Journal: Biostatistics; 2003 Apr; 4(2):279-95. PubMed ID: 12925522.
    Abstract:
    Mass vaccination programmes aim to maintain the effective reproduction number R of an infection below unity. We describe methods for monitoring the value of R using surveillance data. The models are based on branching processes in which R is identified with the offspring mean. We derive unconditional likelihoods for the offspring mean using data on outbreak size and outbreak duration. We also discuss Bayesian methods, implemented by Metropolis-Hastings sampling. We investigate by simulation the validity of the models with respect to depletion of susceptibles and under-ascertainment of cases. The methods are illustrated using surveillance data on measles in the USA.
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