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  • Title: The future of the nurse shortage: will wage increases close the gap?
    Author: Spetz J, Given R.
    Journal: Health Aff (Millwood); 2003; 22(6):199-206. PubMed ID: 14649447.
    Abstract:
    In recent years the U.S. media have been reporting a shortage of registered nurses (RNs). In theory, labor-market shortages are self-correcting; wage increases will bring labor markets into equilibrium, and policy intervention is not necessary. In this paper we develop a simple forecasting model and ask the question: How high must RN wages rise in the future to end the RN shortage? We find that inflation-adjusted wages must increase 3.2-3.8 percent per year between 2002 and 2016, with wages cumulatively rising up to 69 percent, to end the shortage. Total RN expenditures would more than double by 2016.
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