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  • Title: Effects of rofecoxib and naproxen on life expectancy among patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a decision analysis.
    Author: Choi HK, Seeger JD, Kuntz KM.
    Journal: Am J Med; 2004 May 01; 116(9):621-9. PubMed ID: 15093759.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND: The VIOXX Gastrointestinal Outcomes Research (VIGOR) trial showed a 53% decrease in the risk of upper gastrointestinal toxicity and a fivefold increase in the risk of myocardial infarction for rofecoxib (a selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitor) compared with naproxen. We examined the effects of these competing adverse events on life expectancy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: We used decision analysis to compare the life expectancy of a cohort of rheumatoid arthritis patients taking naproxen versus a similar cohort taking rofecoxib, using data from the VIGOR trial. We incorporated the competing risks of upper gastrointestinal toxicity and myocardial infarction, as well as their long-term health consequences, on the basis of population-based studies. RESULTS: For 58-year-old women with rheumatoid arthritis (i.e., typical of participants in the VIGOR trial), naproxen was associated with a longer life expectancy than was rofecoxib (difference = 4.4 months). This difference was larger among 58-year-old men (7.8 months). The probability that naproxen is associated with a longer life expectancy than rofecoxib among 58-year-old patients was 92% for women and 98% for men. Life expectancy became the same between the two treatments when the risk of upper gastrointestinal toxicity was 70% higher or the risk of myocardial infarction was 40% lower than that of the base case among women, and when the risk of upper gastrointestinal toxicity was 4.4-fold higher or the risk of myocardial infarction was 70% lower among men. CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that the competing risks of upper gastrointestinal toxicity and myocardial infarction shown in the VIGOR trial would project a longer life expectancy with naproxen than rofecoxib among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, except in those at low risk of myocardial infarction or at high risk of upper gastrointestinal toxicity.
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