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  • Title: Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders.
    Author: Seto MC.
    Journal: Psychol Assess; 2005 Jun; 17(2):156-67. PubMed ID: 16029103.
    Abstract:
    The present study was conducted to determine whether combining the results of multiple actuarial risk scales increases accuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. Multiple methods of combining 4 validated actuarial risk scales--the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, and the Static-99--were evaluated in a sample of 215 adult male sex offenders. These included the intuitively appealing believe-the-negative and believe-the-positive rules, adapted from medical decision making; the combination of absolute decision thresholds across a range of cutoff scores; and the statistical optimization methods of logistic regression and principal components analyses. No combination method provided a statistically significant or consistent advantage over the predictive accuracy of the single best actuarial scale.
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