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  • Title: Estimated one-year glomerular filtration rate is the best predictor of long-term graft function following renal transplant.
    Author: Salvadori M, Rosati A, Bock A, Chapman J, Dussol B, Fritsche L, Kliem V, Lebranchu Y, Oppenheimer F, Pohanka E, Tufveson G, Bertoni E.
    Journal: Transplantation; 2006 Jan 27; 81(2):202-6. PubMed ID: 16436963.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND: Long-term success of renal transplantation depends upon the quality of the donor organ, avoidance of peritransplant and early posttransplant damage (rejection), and optimal maintenance of graft function after the first 6-12 months. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at 1 year is a standard way to evaluate short-term success, whereas calculated GFR at 5 years gives a better appreciation of long-term outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of various demographic and transplant-related parameters on renal function via GFR at 1 year and 5 years post transplantation, using univariate and multivariate data analysis. METHODS: Data on 1-year GFR were available from 10,397 patients, whereas 2,889 patients provided data on both 1-year and 5-year GFR. All patients were enrolled in the Neoral Multinational Observational Study in Transplantation (Neoral-MOST), an ongoing, prospective, observational study of adult renal transplant recipients. RESULTS: One-year GFR was the most relevant predictor for 5-year GFR. In a multifactorial analysis (ANCOVA) using 1-year GFR as a continuous variable, the effects of several highly relevant parameters from univariate analysis (such as acute rejection and delayed graft function) on 5-year GFR appeared to be fully mediated by their influence on 1-year GFR, whereas immunological risk factors like HLA match or previous transplantation had an ongoing effect on graft function beyond year 1. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study corroborate and augment data from previous registry surveys, and confirm the importance of observational studies in investigating the role of peritransplant parameters on long-term graft outcome.
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