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  • Title: Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil.
    Author: Favier C, Degallier N, Rosa-Freitas MG, Boulanger JP, Costa Lima JR, Luitgards-Moura JF, Menkès CE, Mondet B, Oliveira C, Weimann ET, Tsouris P.
    Journal: Trop Med Int Health; 2006 Mar; 11(3):332-40. PubMed ID: 16553913.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts. METHOD: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista. RESULTS: The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models. CONCLUSION: At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.
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