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  • Title: Invasion of pests resistant to Bt toxins can lead to inherent non-uniqueness in genetically modified Bt-plant dynamics: mathematical modeling.
    Author: Medvinsky AB, Gonik MM, Li BL, Velkov VV, Malchow H.
    Journal: J Theor Biol; 2006 Oct 07; 242(3):539-46. PubMed ID: 16757001.
    Abstract:
    Genetically modified crops are effective pest management tools for worldwide growers. However, there is a concern that pests may develop resistance to Bt-toxins produced by genetically modified Bt-plants. We study the impact of the Bt-resistant pests on Bt-crops. Furthermore, the dynamics of the Bt-plant-Bt-susceptible insects-Bt-resistant insects system is analysed and it is shown that throughout the insect reproduction period the plant biomass dynamics resulting from invasion of Bt-resistant insects is non-unique. Namely, the chaotic attractor and the limit cycle, which are responsible for the plant and insect biomass dynamics, are shown to coexist. As a result, the Bt-plant-Bt-resistant insect system can manifest either chaotic or regular oscillations of plant and insect biomass depending on spatial patterns resulting from invasion of Bt resistant insects into the Bt plant-Bt susceptible insect system. We show that the non-uniqueness of the system dynamics under unfavorable environmental conditions, such as in the so-called zones of risky agriculture in many developing countries and industrialized countries, can lead to essential decrease in the plant biomass.
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