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  • Title: Flux and stability: individual fluctuations, regression towards the mean and collective changes in alcohol consumption.
    Author: Skog OJ, Rossow I.
    Journal: Addiction; 2006 Jul; 101(7):959-70. PubMed ID: 16771888.
    Abstract:
    AIM: First, to extend the predictions of the collectivity theory of drinking cultures to contexts of ordinary panel data, thereby integrating collective change and individual fluctuations in consumption. Secondly, to develop a technique for controlling the regression towards the mean effect, in order to estimate the pattern of individual change, net of this effect. DESIGN: The task is, first and foremost, to develop a theoretical model, guided by earlier contributions and empirical results. The applicability of the model is illustrated through re-analyses of panel data on annual intake of alcoholic beverages from the Finnish alcohol reform in 1968-69, and Norwegian panel data from 1975 to 1976. FINDINGS: The model offers a reasonable fit to the data. It is demonstrated that a previous attempt at controlling the regression effect has overlooked a methodological complication, and therefore underestimates the real change. CONCLUSION: Analysis of the Finnish data demonstrates that the large increase in average consumption was due to approximately the same percentage-wise increase in the consumption level of drinkers at all levels, when the regression effect was controlled for. Thus, in absolute terms the increase was largest among the heavier drinkers.
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