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  • Title: Predictors of mortality among HIV-infected women in Kigali, Rwanda.
    Author: Lindan CP, Allen S, Serufilira A, Lifson AR, Van de Perre P, Chen-Rundle A, Batungwanayo J, Nsengumuremyi F, Bogaerts J, Hulley S.
    Journal: Ann Intern Med; 1992 Feb 15; 116(4):320-8. PubMed ID: 1733389.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To better characterize the natural history of disease due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in African women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study over a 2-year follow-up period. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 460 HIV-seropositive women and a comparison cohort of HIV-seronegative women recruited from prenatal and pediatric clinics in Kigali, Rwanda in 1988. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical signs and symptoms of HIV disease, AIDS, and mortality. MAIN RESULTS: Follow-up data at 2 years were available for 93% of women who were still alive. At enrollment, many seropositive women reported symptoms listed in the World Health Organization (WHO) clinical case definition of AIDS, but these were nonspecific and often improved over time. The 2-year mortality among HIV-infected women by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was 7% (95% CI, 5% to 10%) overall, and 21% (CI, 8% to 34%) for the 40 women who fulfilled the WHO case definition of AIDS at entry. In comparison, the 2-year mortality in women not infected with HIV was only 0.3% (CI, 0% to 7%). Independent baseline predictors of mortality in seropositive women by Cox proportional hazards modeling were, in order of descending risk factor prevalence: a body mass index of 21 kg/m2 or less (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.8), low income (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.5), an erythrocyte sedimentation rate exceeding 60 mm/h (relative hazard, 4.9; CI, 2.2 to 10.9), chronic diarrhea (relative hazard, 2.6; CI, 1.1 to 5.7), a history of herpes zoster (relative hazard 5.3; CI, 2.5 to 11.4), and oral candida (relative hazard, 7.3; CI, 1.6 to 33.3). Human immunodeficiency virus disease was the cause of death in 38 of the 39 HIV-positive women who died, but only 25 met the WHO definition of AIDS before death. CONCLUSIONS: Human immunodeficiency virus disease now accounts for 90% of all deaths among child-bearing urban Rwandan women. Many symptomatic seropositive patients may show some clinical improvement and should not be denied routine medical care. Easily diagnosed signs and symptoms and inexpensive laboratory tests can be used in Africa to identify those patients with a particularly good or bad prognosis. In 1988, researchers recruited 18-35 year old women from pediatric and prenatal care clinics at the Centre Hospitalier de Kigali in Rwanda to observe HIV disease progression. They compared probability of survival of the 460 HIV-positive women with that of the 998 HIV-negative women. They used simple clinical and laboratory variables as predictors of mortality from AIDS. The researchers did not use the WHO clinical case definition of AIDS as the outcome measure since 40 and 30 women from each group, respectively, met the criteria for AIDS at entry. Only 66% (25) of the HIV=infected women who died met the criteria for AIDS during the study. After 2 years, mortality among HIV-infected women stood at 7% (39) which was more than 20 times higher than that among women not HIV infected (0.3%; p .001). Mortality was 21% for those who met the WHO criteria for AIDS. The wasting syndrome was the cause of the death in 51% of HIV-infected death cases. The baseline predictors of mortality in HIV-infected women in descending order of prevalence of predictor included an at most body mass index of 21 kg.sq. (48%; relative hazard [RH] 2.3), low income (46%; RH=2.6), mm/hour erythrocyte sedimentation rate (39%; rh = 4.9), chronic diarrhea (10%; RH = 2.6), a history of herpes zoster (9%; RH 5.3), and oral candidiasis (1%; RH 7.3). The erythrocyte sedimentation rate was a better predictor than lymphocyte counts (p .001) and p .11, respectively). Of the 40 HIV-infected women who met the criteria for AIDS, the health of 32 women improved so the physicians no longer considered them to have AIDS. Thus health workers should treat symptomatic HIV-positive cases. AIDS was responsible for 90% of all deaths among reproductive age women living in Kigali. Health workers in Africa can use the simpler erythrocyte sedimentation rate instead of the more costly CD4 counts as a predictor of progression to AIDS.
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