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  • Title: Short-term clinical disease progression in HIV-1-positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy: the EuroSIDA risk-score.
    Author: Mocroft A, Ledergerber B, Zilmer K, Kirk O, Hirschel B, Viard JP, Reiss P, Francioli P, Lazzarin A, Machala L, Phillips AN, Lundgren JD, EuroSIDA study group and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.
    Journal: AIDS; 2007 Sep 12; 21(14):1867-75. PubMed ID: 17721094.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND METHODS: Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS/death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). RESULTS: In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7-3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk-score was divided into four strata; a patient in the lowest strata would have predicted chance of new AIDS/death of 1 in 801, 1 in 401 and 1 in 201 within the next 3, 6 or 12 months, respectively. The corresponding figures for the highest strata were 1 in 17, 1 in 9 and 1 in 5, respectively. A single-unit increase in the risk-score was associated with a 2.70 times higher incidence of clinical progression (95% CI, 2.56-2.84) in EuroSIDA and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.75-3.02) in SHCS. CONCLUSIONS: A clinically relevant prognostic score was derived in EuroSIDA and validated within the SHCS, with good agreement. The EuroSIDA risk-score will be made available publicly via an interface that will perform all calculations for the individual.
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