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  • Title: Will generalist physician supply meet demands of an increasing and aging population?
    Author: Colwill JM, Cultice JM, Kruse RL.
    Journal: Health Aff (Millwood); 2008; 27(3):w232-41. PubMed ID: 18445642.
    Abstract:
    We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.
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