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  • Title: Logarithmic curves depicting initial level and rise of serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin and live delivery outcomes with in vitro fertilization: an analysis of 6021 pregnancies.
    Author: Shamonki MI, Frattarelli JL, Bergh PA, Scott RT.
    Journal: Fertil Steril; 2009 May; 91(5):1760-4. PubMed ID: 18455162.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To correlate the live delivery rate with the initial level and rise of serum beta-hCG. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Large private academic center for assisted reproductive technologies and infertility. PATIENT(S): Records of all patients from 1999 to 2005 undergoing IVF with detectable early serum beta-hCG after ET. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Live delivery rate. RESULT(S): Data from 6021 pregnancies were analyzed. Initial beta-hCG was predictive for delivery rate for all patients and for each age group. After controlling for the first beta-hCG, there were higher loss rates as age increased. Percent rise in second beta-hCG drawn 2 days later added predictive value. A decline in beta-hCG almost always resulted in a failure to deliver. There was a progressive increase in delivery rate as the percent rise in beta-hCG went from 0 to 100%; however, there was no further enhancement in delivery rates beyond the 100% rise point. While a better rise in beta-hCG was a good prognostic factor in all age groups, the differences in outcomes for the different age groups remained, even after controlling for first beta-hCG and percent rise. CONCLUSION(S): Initial level and rise in beta-hCG predicts live delivery rate, with oocyte age providing additional predictive value. The established logarithmic curves should provide convenient reference tools for tracking outcomes and counseling patients.
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