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  • Title: Clinical course and prognostic factors in acute neck pain: an inception cohort study in general practice.
    Author: Vos CJ, Verhagen AP, Passchier J, Koes BW.
    Journal: Pain Med; 2008; 9(5):572-80. PubMed ID: 18565009.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To describe the natural course of patients with acute neck pain presenting in general practice and to identify prognostic factors for recovery and sick leave. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective cohort study with a 1-year follow-up in general practice. Questionnaires were collected at baseline and after 6, 12, 26, and 52 weeks. Days of sick leave were dichotomized into two groups: below and above 7 days of sick leave. Logistic regression was used to identify prognostic factors for recovery and sick leave. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients with nonspecific neck pain lasting no longer than 6 weeks were invited to participate. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-seven patients were included and 138 (74%) provided follow-up data. After 1 year, 76% of the patients stated to be fully recovered or much improved, although 47% reported to have ongoing neck pain. Almost half of the patients on sick leave at baseline returned to work within 7 days. Multivariate analysis showed that the highest association with recovery was the advice of the general practitioner (GP) "to wait and see" (odds ratio [OR] 6.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-31.8). For sick leave, referral by the GP, for physical therapy or to a medical specialist, showed the highest association (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.0-8.4). CONCLUSION: Acute neck pain had a good prognosis for the majority of patients, but still a relatively high proportion of patients reported neck pain after 1-year follow-up. The advice given by the GP "to wait and see" was associated with recovery, and "referral" was associated with prolonged sick leave.
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