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  • Title: Diagnostic emergency endoscopy in upper gastrointestinal bleeding--do we have any decision aids for patient selection?
    Author: Stöltzing H, Ohmann C, Krick M, Thon K.
    Journal: Hepatogastroenterology; 1991 Jun; 38(3):224-7. PubMed ID: 1937359.
    Abstract:
    The benefit of emergency endoscopy and therapeutic policies based on certain stigmata of bleeding has recently been demonstrated in patients with peptic ulcer hemorrhage. Applying a simple method of computer-aided diagnosis to a set of prospective data (n = 571) we investigated the question as to whether information on the history (28 variables) and clinical examination (8 variables) could be used to predict ulcer bleeding or certain stigmata of bleeding, with a view to deciding when to perform an emergency endoscopy in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The patients were assigned to either a high-risk group (probability greater than 0.50 for ulcer bleeding, arterial bleeding, etc.) or a low-risk group (p less than 0.50), and the prediction was compared with the actual findings at endoscopy. The results were disappointing, with an overall accuracy of 71% for the prediction of bleeding peptic ulcer and 71% for the prediction of a bleeding or non-bleeding visible vessel. Despite a relative risk of 2.8 for "bleeding ulcer" and 2.5 for "visible vessel" in the high-risk group, only 72% of all "bleeding ulcer" patients, and 69% of the "visible vessel" patients could be identified by the model. These results indicate that neither a bleeding ulcer nor stigmata of bleeding can be reliably predicted by the patient's history and clinical examination. Emergency endoscopy should therefore be performed in all patients with gastrointestinal bleeding.
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