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  • Title: Looking forward in records of young adults convicted of sexual homicide, rape, or molestation as youth: risks for reoffending.
    Author: Busch KG, Zagar RJ, Grove WM, Hughes JR, Arbit J, Bussell RE, Bartikowski B.
    Journal: Psychol Rep; 2009 Feb; 104(1):155-84. PubMed ID: 19480213.
    Abstract:
    To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists (M age = 14.2 yr., SD = 1.5; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts (OR = 1.55e+12; AUC = .99, 95% CI = .98-.99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts (OR = 4.55e+23), poorer executive function (OR = 2.01), and lower social maturity (OR = .97; AUC = .98, 95% CI = .97-.99). Records for all cases (now M age = 24.2 yr., SD = 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n = 7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n = 73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n = 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n = 69), Delinquent Molesters (23%, n = 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7%, n = 45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27%, n = 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases (n = 7) with their matched Controls (n = 7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive function (AUC = .89, 95% CI = .71-.93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts (AUC = .81, 95% CI = .64-.93).
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