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  • Title: Assessing the short- and long-term prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding.
    Author: Sempere L, Palazón JM, Sánchez-Payá J, Pascual S, de Madaria E, Poveda MJ, Carnicer F, Zapater P, Pérez-Mateo M.
    Journal: Rev Esp Enferm Dig; 2009 Apr; 101(4):236-48. PubMed ID: 19492899.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of various indicators in predicting short- and long-term survival in patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. MATERIAL AND METHODS: prognostic indicators were calculated for a cohort of 201 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding hospitalized in our center, a third-level teaching hospital. The studied variables were: age, sex, etiology of cirrhosis, endoscopic findings, previous variceal bleeding episodes, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), infection during episode, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores within 24 hours of bleeding onset. Patients were followed up for at least 6 months until death, liver transplantation, or end of observation. RESULTS: median follow-up was 66.85 weeks (range 0-432.4). The 6-week, 3-month, 12-month and 36-month mortality rates were 22.9, 24.9, 34.3, and 39.8%, respectively. Age >= 65 years, presence of HCC, CTP score >=10, and MELD score >= 18 were the variables associated with mortality in the multivariate analysis. The accuracy of MELD scores as predictors of 6-week, 3-month, 12-month, and 36-month mortality was better than that of CTP scores (c-statistics: 6 week MELD 0.804, CTP 0.762; 3-month MELD 0.794, CTP 0.760; 12-month MELD 0.766, CTP 0.741; 36 month MELD 0.737, CTP 0.717). CONCLUSION: MELD and CTP scores together with age and a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma are useful indicators to assess the short- and long-term prognosis of patients with acute variceal bleeding.
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