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  • Title: Is transient elastography valuable for high-risk esophageal varices prediction in patients with hepatitis-B-related cirrhosis?
    Author: Chen YP, Zhang Q, Dai L, Liang XE, Peng J, Hou JL.
    Journal: J Gastroenterol Hepatol; 2012 Mar; 27(3):533-9. PubMed ID: 21871027.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND AND AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical value of transient elastography (TE) for high-risk esophageal varices (HREV) prediction in hepatitis-B-related cirrhosis patients. METHODS: A total of 238 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis were prospectively enrolled. All patients had undergone TE and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Diagnostic value was assessed by the area under ROC curve (AUROC), predictive value and likelihood ratio. RESULTS: The size of esophageal varices correlated with liver stiffness with Kendall's tau_b 0.236 overall and 0.425 in patients with ALT ≥ 5 × upper limit of normal (ULN). The AUROC of TE predicting HREV was 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.80) overall and 0.92 (0.82-1.01) for patients with ALT ≥ 5 × ULN. In patients with ALT ≥ 5 × ULN, cut-off 36.1 kPa predicted HREV with a 100% negative predictive value (NPV), an indefinite negative likelihood ratio (NLR), a 72.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and a positive likelihood ratio (PLR) of 9.3. The AUROC of HREV-predicting model, constructed by ultrasonography and TE (USLS), was 0.84 (0.77-0.90) in the training set and 0.85 (0.76-0.94) in the validating set. Cut-off 3.30 excluded HREV with NPV 0.946 and NLR 0.10, and cut-off 5.98 determined HREV with PPV 0.870 and PLR 10.24. Using USLS, nearly 50% of patients could avoid endoscopic screening. The model's predictive values were maintained at similar accuracy in the validation set. Differences of AUROC in USLS, liver stiffness/spleen diameter to platelet ratio score and ultrasonic score were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: TE may predict HREV in patients with ALT ≥ 5 × ULN. Overall, the clinical values of TE and USLS for HREV prediction should be evaluated by further studies.
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