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  • Title: Usefulness of frequent supraventricular extrasystoles and a high CHADS2 score to predict first-time appearance of atrial fibrillation.
    Author: Suzuki S, Sagara K, Otsuka T, Kano H, Matsuno S, Takai H, Uejima T, Oikawa Y, Koike A, Nagashima K, Kirigaya H, Yajima J, Tanabe H, Sawada H, Aizawa T, Yamashita T.
    Journal: Am J Cardiol; 2013 Jun 01; 111(11):1602-7. PubMed ID: 23499279.
    Abstract:
    Frequent supraventricular extrasystoles (SVEs) are associated with the subsequent first-time appearance of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined role of SVEs and an AF-related risk score for ischemic stroke, the CHADS2 score, on the occurrence of new AF in patients in sinus rhythm. The Shinken Database 2004-2010 lists 3,263 patients who underwent 24-hour Holter monitoring. A total of 2,589 patients were analyzed, after excluding 674 patients previously diagnosed with AF. Frequent SVEs were defined as ≥102 beats/day (the top quartile) and the presence of a clinical background for a CHADS2 score ≥2 points as a high CHADS2 score. During the mean follow-up period of 571.4 ± 606.4 days, new AF occurred in 38 patients (9.4 per 1,000 patient-years). The incidence of new AF was 2.7 and 37.7 per 1,000 patient-years for patients with nonfrequent SVEs (<102 beats/day) and low CHADS2 scores and those with frequent SVEs and high CHADS2 scores, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the hazard ratio for frequent SVEs and a high CHADS2 score compared with nonfrequent SVEs and a low CHADS2 score was 9.49 (95% confidence interval 3.20 to 28.15, p <0.001), even after adjustment for gender, age, medications, and echocardiographic parameters. In conclusion, frequent SVEs and a high CHADS2 score independently and synergistically predict the first-time appearance of AF in patients in sinus rhythm, indicating an approximately 10-fold higher risk. Patients meeting these criteria should have more aggressive early intervention for preventing AF.
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