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  • Title: The positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing of increasing methane emissions from a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.
    Author: Helbig M, Chasmer LE, Kljun N, Quinton WL, Treat CC, Sonnentag O.
    Journal: Glob Chang Biol; 2017 Jun; 23(6):2413-2427. PubMed ID: 27689625.
    Abstract:
    At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus ('forest') lead to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands ('wetland'). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH4 ) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw-induced increase in CH4 emissions for a boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long-term net carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH4 flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH4 emissions increase with increasing wetland-to-forest ratio. Landscape CH4 emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May-October) wetland CH4 emission of ~13 g CH4  m-2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH4 emission of ~7 g CH4  m-2 . In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH4 emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr-1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH4  m-2  yr-1 in landscape CH4 emissions. A long-term net CO2 uptake of >200 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH4 emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH4 and CO2 concentration model. However, long-term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest-wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO2 flux measurements suggest a long-term net CO2 uptake between 49 and 157 g CO2  m-2  yr-1 . Thus, thaw-induced CH4 emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century.
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