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  • Title: Overconfidence across the psychosis continuum: a calibration approach.
    Author: Balzan RP, Woodward TS, Delfabbro P, Moritz S.
    Journal: Cogn Neuropsychiatry; 2016 Nov; 21(6):510-524. PubMed ID: 27710199.
    Abstract:
    INTRODUCTION: An 'overconfidence in errors' bias has been consistently observed in people with schizophrenia relative to healthy controls, however, the bias is seldom found to be associated with delusional ideation. Using a more precise confidence-accuracy calibration measure of overconfidence, the present study aimed to explore whether the overconfidence bias is greater in people with higher delusional ideation. METHODS: A sample of 25 participants with schizophrenia and 50 non-clinical controls (25 high- and 25 low-delusion-prone) completed 30 difficult trivia questions (accuracy <75%); 15 'half-scale' items required participants to indicate their level of confidence for accuracy, and the remaining 'confidence-range' items asked participants to provide lower/upper bounds in which they were 80% confident the true answer lay within. RESULTS: There was a trend towards higher overconfidence for half-scale items in the schizophrenia and high-delusion-prone groups, which reached statistical significance for confidence-range items. However, accuracy was particularly low in the two delusional groups and a significant negative correlation between clinical delusional scores and overconfidence was observed for half-scale items within the schizophrenia group. Evidence in support of an association between overconfidence and delusional ideation was therefore mixed. CONCLUSIONS: Inflated confidence-accuracy miscalibration for the two delusional groups may be better explained by their greater unawareness of their underperformance, rather than representing genuinely inflated overconfidence in errors.
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