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  • Title: Validation of a Decision Tree to Streamline Infrainguinal Vein Graft Surveillance.
    Author: Mofidi R, McBride OMB, Green BR, Gatenby T, Walker P, Milburn S.
    Journal: Ann Vasc Surg; 2017 Apr; 40():216-222. PubMed ID: 27890844.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND: Duplex ultrasound (DU)-based graft surveillance remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a recently proposed decision tree in identifying high-risk grafts which would benefit from DU-based surveillance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing infrainguinal vein graft bypass from January 2008 to December 2015 were identified from the National Vascular registry and enrolled in a duplex surveillance program. An early postoperative DU was performed at a median of 6 weeks (range: 4-9 weeks). Grafts were classified into high risk or low risk based on the findings of the earliest postoperative scan and 4 established risk factors for graft failure (diabetes, smoking, infragenicular distal anastomosis, and revision bypass surgery) using a classification and regression tree (CRT). The accuracy of the CRT model was evaluated using area under receiver operator characteristic (AROC) curve. RESULTS: About 278 vein graft bypasses were performed; 29 grafts had occluded by the first surveillance visit; 249 vein grafts were entered into surveillance. Sixty-four (23%) developed critical stenosis. Overall 30-month primary patency, primary-assisted patency, and secondary patency rates were 71.2%, 77.2%, and 80.1%, respectively. AROC for prediction of graft stenosis or occlusion was 83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78-87%). The sensitivity and specificity of the CRT model for prediction of graft stenosis or occlusion were 95% (95% CI: 88-98%) and 52.2% (95% CI: 45-60%). CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model based on commonly recorded clinical variables and early postoperative DU scan is accurate at identifying grafts which are at high risk of failure. These high-risk grafts may benefit from DU-based surveillance.
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