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  • Title: Carotid plaque detection improves the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: The ARAPACIS Study.
    Author: Basili S, Loffredo L, Pastori D, Proietti M, Farcomeni A, Vestri AR, Pignatelli P, Davì G, Hiatt WR, Lip GY, Corazza GR, Perticone F, Violi F, in collaboration with ARAPACIS Study InvestigatorsSee Appendix A..
    Journal: Int J Cardiol; 2017 Mar 15; 231():143-149. PubMed ID: 28087176.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Vascular disease (VD), as assessed by history of myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease or aortic plaque, increases stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF), and is a component of risk assessment using the CHA2DS2-VASc score. We investigated if systemic atherosclerosis as detected by ultrasound carotid plaque (CP) could improve the predictive value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score. METHODS: We analysed data from the ARAPACIS study, an observational study including 2027 Italian patients with non-valvular AF, in whom CP was detected using Doppler Ultrasonography. RESULTS: VD was reported in 351 (17.3%) patients while CP was detected in 16.6% patients. Adding CP to the VD definition leaded to higher VD prevalence (30.9%). During a median [IQR] follow-up time of 36months, 56 (2.8%) stroke/TIA events were recorded. Survival analysis showed that conventional VD alone did not increase the risk of stroke (Log-Rank: 0.009, p=0.924), while addition of CP to conventional VD was significantly associated to an increased risk of stroke (LR: 5.730, p=0.017). Cox regression analysis showed that VD+CP was independently associated with stroke (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.05-3.01, p=0.0318). Reclassification analysis showed that VD+CP allowed a significant risk reclassification when compared to VD alone in predicting stroke at 36months (NRI: 0.192, 95% CI: 0.028-0.323, p=0.032). CONCLUSIONS: In non-valvular AF patients the addition of ultrasound detection of carotid plaque to conventional VD significantly increases the predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke.
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