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  • Title: Follow-up of an age-period-cohort analysis on alcohol-related mortality trends in Sweden 1970-2015 with predictions to 2025.
    Author: Rosén M, Haglund B.
    Journal: Scand J Public Health; 2019 Jun; 47(4):446-451. PubMed ID: 29334866.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies have indicated that birth cohorts are important in explaining trends in alcohol-related mortality. An earlier study from Sweden with data up to 2002 showed that birth cohorts that grew up under periods of more liberal alcohol policies had higher alcohol-related mortality than those cohorts growing up under more restrictive time periods. In spite of increasing alcohol consumption, predictions in 2002 also indicated lower alcohol-related mortality in the future. The aim of this study is to follow-up whether the effects of birth cohorts and the predictions made for Sweden still holds using data up to 2015. METHOD: The study comprised an age-period-cohort analysis and predictions based on population predictions from Statistics Sweden. The analysis was based on all alcohol-related deaths in the Swedish population between 1969 and 2015 for the cohorts born in the decades 1920 through 1990. Data were restricted to people 15-84 years of age. In total, the analysis covered 68,341 deaths and more than 284 million person-years. RESULTS: Male and female cohorts born in the 1940s to 1950s exhibited the highest alcohol-related mortality, while those born in the 1970s continued to have the lowest alcohol-related mortality rates. The predicted mortality rates for males are still anticipated to decrease somewhat through 2025. CONCLUSIONS: The updated age-period-cohort analysis further supports the importance of focusing on restrictive alcohol policies targeting adolescents.
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