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Title: [Predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning]. Author: Liang H, Gao Y, Liu Y, Gu SS, Cai N, Jiang M, Wang J, He F. Journal: Zhonghua Lao Dong Wei Sheng Zhi Ye Bing Za Zhi; 2018 Dec 20; 36(12):911-914. PubMed ID: 30812077. Abstract: Objective: To investigate the predictive value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) in 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. Methods: We respectively reviewed the clinical parameters of 115 patients with acute paraquat poisoning. They were divided into survival (n=64) and non-survival (n=51) groups based on their 30-day outcome. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors of 30-day mortality. Receiver operating curve (ROC) test was applied to analysis to the predictive value of NLR in 30-day mortality ofacute paraquat poisoning patients. The correlations between NLR and severity index of paraquat poisoning (SIPP) were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results: Of the 115patients included in the study, 54 (46.96%) patients were males and 61 (53.04%) were females with a mean age of 38.96±13.58 years. The total mortality in 30-day was 44.35% (51/115) . The NLR at admission was an independently risk factor of 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning (OR 1.477, 95%CI 1.035-2.107, P<0.05) . The NLR to predict the death of the area under the ROC curve was 0.894 (95%CI: 0.8212-0.9663, P<0.01) ; the optimal cutoff threshold was 11.71; the sensitivity was 71.79% and the specificity was 94.29%; the positive predictive value was 93.33%and negative predictive value of 75.00%. Meanwhile, the positive likelihood ratio was 12.57 and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.30. The NLR was significantly associated with SIPP (Spearman rho 0.525; P<0.01) and it was significantly higher in patients with SIPP of ten or higher than in those with an SIPP less than 10 (15.02±12.40 vs. 6.19±2.54, P<0.05) . Conclusion: The increased NLR at admission was an independently risk factor of 30-day mortality of patients with acute paraquat poisoning and it was significantly correlated with SIPP score. Therefore, NLR was useful for predicting prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning. 目的: 评估血中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率(Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio,NLR)对急性百草枯中毒患者30 d死亡风险的预测价值。 方法: 回顾性分析收住南京大学医学院附属鼓楼医院急诊科的115例急性百草枯中毒患者临床资料,以中毒30 d后的临床转归情况分为存活组(64例)和死亡组(51例)。单因素及多因素logistic回归分析临床资料确定中毒患者死亡的高危因素。利用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)评估NLR对中毒患者30 d死亡风险的预测价值。Spearman分析探讨NLR与百草枯中毒严重程度指数(severity index of paraquat poisoning,SIPP)之间的相关性。 结果: 急性百草枯中毒患者平均年龄(38.9±13.6)岁,男性54例,女性61例,总体病死率44.35%(51/115)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,NLR是中毒患者死亡的危险因素(OR:1.477,95%CI: 1.035~2.107,P<0.05)。NLR预测效能的ROC曲线下面积为0.894(95%CI:0.821 2~0.966 3,P<0.01),最佳截断值为11.71(敏感度71.79%、特异度94.29%;阳性预测值93.33%、阴性预测值75.00%;阳性似然比12.57、阴性似然比0.30)。NLR与SIPP呈中等强度正相关(r=0.525, P<0.01),且SIPP≥10组患者NLR值(15.02±12.40)较SIPP<10组(6.19±2.54)均明显升高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。 结论: NLR值增高是急性百草枯中毒患者死亡的高危因素,其与SIPP具有良好的相关性,对中毒患者的30 d死亡风险具有良好的预测价值。.[Abstract] [Full Text] [Related] [New Search]