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  • Title: Identifying Patients With Kawasaki Disease Safe for Early Discharge: Development of a Risk Prediction Model at a US Children's Hospital.
    Author: Hester GZ, Watson D, Nickel AJ, Ryan N, Jepson B, Gray J, Bergmann KR.
    Journal: Hosp Pediatr; 2019 Oct; 9(10):749-756. PubMed ID: 31501220.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVES: To develop a model to predict risk of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) nonresponse in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) to assist in early discharge decision-making. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 430 patients 0 to 18 years old discharged from a US children's hospital January 1, 2010, through July 31, 2017 with a diagnosis of KD. IVIg nonresponse was defined as at least 1 of the following: temperature ≥38.0°C between 36 hours and 7 days after initial IVIg dose, receipt of a second IVIg dose after a temperature ≥38.0°C at least 20 hours after initial IVIg dose, or readmission within 7 days with administration of a second IVIg dose. Backward stepwise logistic regression was used to select a predictive model. RESULTS: IVIg nonresponse occurred in 19% (81 of 430) of patients. We identified a multivariate model (which included white blood cell count, hemoglobin level, platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase level, sodium level, albumin level, temperature within 6 hours of first IVIg dose, and incomplete KD) with good predictive ability (optimism-adjusted concordance index: 0.700) for IVIg nonresponse. Stratifying into 2 groups by a predictive probability cutoff of 0.10, we identified 26% of patients at low risk for IVIg nonresponse, with a sensitivity and specificity of 90% and 30%, respectively, and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a model with good predictive value for identifying risk of IVIg nonresponse in patients with KD at a US children's hospital. Patients at lower risk may be considered for early discharge by using shared decision-making. Our model may be used to inform implementation of electronic health record tools and future risk prediction research.
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