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  • Title: The moving epidemic method applied to influenza surveillance in Guangdong, China.
    Author: Kang M, Tan X, Ye M, Liao Y, Song T, Tang S.
    Journal: Int J Infect Dis; 2021 Mar; 104():594-600. PubMed ID: 33515775.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVES: The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been well used for assessing seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions. This study used the MEM to establish epidemic threshold for influenza in Guangdong, a subtropical province in China. METHODS: Influenza virology surveillance data from 2011/2012 to 2017/2018 seasons in Guangdong were used with the MEM to calculate the epidemic thresholds and timeously detect the 2018/2019 influenza season epidemic. The weekly positive proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria-lineage and B/Yamagata-lineage were separately adapted to calculate the subtype-specific epidemic thresholds. The performance of MEM was evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. RESULTS: For the 2018/2019 influenza season, the epidemic threshold of a weekly positive proportion was 15.08%. Epidemic detection for the 2018/2019 season was 1 week in advance. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Yamagata-lineage and B/Victoria-lineage prevailed during winter and spring and their epidemic thresholds were 5.12%, 4.53% and 4.38%, respectively. Influenza A(H3N2) was active in the summer, with an epidemic threshold of 11.99%. CONCLUSIONS: Using influenza virology surveillance data stratified by types of influenza virus, the MEM was effectively used in Guangdong, China. This study provided a practical way for subtropical regions to establish local influenza epidemic thresholds.
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