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  • Title: Prediction model for curative endoscopic submucosal dissection of undifferentiated-type early gastric cancer.
    Author: Yang HJ, Joo MK, Park JM, Ahn JY, Jang JY, Lim JH, Nam SY, Kim JH, Min BH, Lee WS, Lee BE, Shin WG, Lee HL, Gweon TG, Park MI, Choi J, Tae CH, Kim YI, Ryu KW, Choi IJ.
    Journal: Surg Endosc; 2022 Feb; 36(2):1414-1423. PubMed ID: 33725190.
    Abstract:
    BACKGROUND: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is an effective treatment for early gastric cancer (EGC); however, its curative resection rate is low for undifferentiated-type EGC. We developed and externally validated a prediction model for curative ESD of undifferentiated-type EGC. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we included 448 patients who underwent ESD for undifferentiated-type EGC at 18 hospitals in Korea between 2005 and 2015 in the development cohort and 1342 patients who underwent surgery at two hospitals in the validation cohort. A prediction model was developed using the logistic regression model. RESULTS: Endoscopic tumor size 1-2 cm (odds ratio [OR], 2.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54-3.73), tumor size > 2 cm (OR, 14.00; 95% CI 6.81-28.77), and proximal tumor location from the lower to upper third of the stomach (OR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.03-2.04) were independent predictors of non-curative ESD. A six-score prediction model was developed by assigning points to endoscopic tumor size > 2 cm (five points), tumor size 1-2 cm (two points), upper third location (two points), and middle third location (one point). The rate of curative ESD ranged from 70.6% (score 0) to 11.6% (score 5) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.720 (95% CI 0.673-0.766). The model also showed good performance in the validation cohort (AUC, 0.775; 95% CI 0.748-0.803). CONCLUSIONS: This six-score prediction model may help in predicting curative ESD and making informed decisions about the treatment selection between ESD and surgery for undifferentiated-type EGC.
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