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  • Title: Zero population growth in Michigan.
    Author: Gorwitz K, Siddique CM.
    Journal: Health Serv Rep; 1972; 87(7):617-22. PubMed ID: 5071310.
    Abstract:
    Between 1960-1970, the number of Michigan residents increased more than 1,000,000 or 13.4%. If this growth rate were to continue, Michigan's population would total 10.1 million in 1980, 13 million in 2000, 16.7 million in 2020, and 21.5 million in 2040. In projecting the effect of zero population growth on Michigan's future population size, the following assumptions were made: 1) immigration will equal out-migration; 2) age-specific death rates for males and females will remain constant at current levels; and 3) age-specific rates will remain constant at levels computed by multiplying all current rates by 2.11/2.56. If the foregoing 3 assumptions are valid, the following could be anticipated: 1) the number of Michigan residents will increase an average of .5% per year until 2030 as compared with the current annual growth rate of 1.0%: 2) the median age of the population will increase form 26.5 in 1970 to 28.3 years in 1980 and will continue to increase until it is 36.3 years in 2030; 3) the number of residents younger than 15 will decrease 4.9% by 2030; 4) the ratio of dependent population to working-age population will decrease from .95 to 1 in 1970 to .77 to 1 in 2030; 5) because an gradual aging of the population, the crude death rate per 1000 population will increase an average of .7% each year; 6) because of the declining proportion of women in the childbearing ages, the crude birthrate per 100 population will decrease an average of .3% per year; 7) because of the greater life expectancy of women at all ages, the current excess of women in the older age groups will increase considerably; and 8) the median age of Michigan's female residents will increase more rapidly than for males. The most apparent effect of the zero population growth is the resultant aging of the population, with a sizable reduction in the proportion of younger residents and a concomitant increase of those 65 years or older.
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