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  • Title: A multi-echelon menu item forecasting system for hospitals.
    Author: Messersmith AM, Moore AN, Hoover LW.
    Journal: J Am Diet Assoc; 1978 May; 72(5):509-15. PubMed ID: 649899.
    Abstract:
    A multi-echelon system was designed to generate statistical forecasts of menu-item demand in hospitals from one- through twenty-eight-day intervals prior to patient meal service. The three interdependent echelons were: (1) Forecasting patient census, (2) estimating diet category census, and (3) calculating menu-item demand. Eighteen weeks of supper data were utilized to analyze diet category distribution patterns and menu-item preferences, to test forecasting models, and to evaluate the performance of the forecasting system. A cost function was used to evaluate the efficiency of the mathematical forecasting system and manual technique over a nine-week period. The cost of menu-item forecast errors resulting from the use of adaptive exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins formulations was approximately 40 per cent less than costs associated with the manual system.
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