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  • Title: Predicting medical specialty choice: a model based on students' records.
    Author: Fadem BH, Nicolich MJ, Simring SS, Dauber MH, Bullock LA.
    Journal: J Med Educ; 1984 May; 59(5):407-15. PubMed ID: 6716431.
    Abstract:
    A discriminant analysis of objective and subjective measures from the records of 628 students who graduated from the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey-New Jersey Medical School over a six-year period was used to generate a model for the prediction of medical specialty choice. The authors found that National Board of Medical Examiners Part II examination scores, sex, race, grades given by preceptors, and a score derived from narrative comments by preceptors during clinical experiences in psychiatry contained information for predicting such a choice. With this model, the correct prediction rate for all specialties was 41 percent. The correct prediction rate for individual specialties ranged from a low of 28 percent for family practice to a high of 68 percent for psychiatry.
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