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  • Title: [Prospective development of cancer mortality in the German Federal Republic (author's transl)].
    Author: Oeser H, Koeppe P.
    Journal: MMW Munch Med Wochenschr; 1981 Apr 24; 123(17):706-8. PubMed ID: 6785615.
    Abstract:
    The absolute number of cancer deaths in males will rise considerably up to the year 2070 from about 76,000 per year in 1976 to an estimated 92,000 in 2070. The numbers will then fall to an extent which is dependent on the future birth rate. The absolute number of cancer deaths among females will remain at the present level until about the third decade of the next millenium and then fall variably depending on the development of the birth rate. The expected increase in cancer deaths among males with a rate of increase of up to 20% (!) is explained by the incipient change in the age structure of the German population alone and needs no reference to carcinogens in our environment.
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