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  • Title: Menu item forecasting systems in hospital foodservice. A cost comparison of two- and three-echelon systems.
    Author: Cullen KO, Hoover LW, Moore AN.
    Journal: J Am Diet Assoc; 1978 Dec; 73(6):640-6. PubMed ID: 722013.
    Abstract:
    The forecasting efficiency of two- and three-echelon menu item forecasting systems was compared. Two forecasting models were used with each system, adaptive exponential smoothing and a Box-Jenkins model. The two systems were compared in terms of forecast error costs. The two-echelon system, using adaptive exponential smoothing, was recommended. This technique resulted in the lowest forecast error costs at a majority of the lead times which probably would be used most frequently. Also, this technique was the least complicated of the four techniques which were compared.
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