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  • Title: The predictive validity of infant assessments in rural Guatemala.
    Author: Lasky RE, Klein RE, Yarbrough C, Kallio KD.
    Journal: Child Dev; 1981 Sep; 52(3):847-56. PubMed ID: 7285657.
    Abstract:
    The behavioral development of rural Guatemalan infants was assessed shortly after birth on a Neonatal Assessment Scale (NAS) and at 6, 15, and 24 months of age on a Composite Infant Scale (CIS). Summary variables based on NAS performance poorly predicted later assessed performance even as recently as 6 months after birth. The CIS was modestly correlated with later performance (between 3 and 7 years of age). These results are similar to those concerning samples from developed nations. Summary variables reflecting failure of easy items, the items most strongly predictive of 4-year performance, and the first principal component factor score all were highly correlated with each other. Of the variables generated they had the most predictive validity. A motor item variable had at least as impressive predictive validity as the mental items at 6 and 15 months. By 24 months the mental variable was a better predictor than the motor variable. In terms of predicting later performance, there seemed to be little justification for weighting items other than to achieve a characterization of overall performance.
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