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  • Title: Multivariate models for predicting progression to AIDS and survival in human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons.
    Author: Blatt SP, McCarthy WF, Bucko-Krasnicka B, Melcher GP, Boswell RN, Dolan J, Freeman TM, Rusnak JM, Hensley RE, Ward WW.
    Journal: J Infect Dis; 1995 Apr; 171(4):837-44. PubMed ID: 7535828.
    Abstract:
    Nine hundred thirty persons enrolled in the US Air Force Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Natural History Study were evaluated with a standard battery of 30 potential surrogate markers of disease progression. A risk score for predicting progression to AIDS was then calculated for each patient in the cohort by using the four highest-ranking variables from multivariate analysis: percentage of CD4 CD29 cells, anergy status, age, and hemoglobin. For predicting survival, beta 2-microglobulin replaced age in the Cox model. Stratification according to the risk score demonstrated that rates of progression to AIDS and survival were significantly different between risk groups (P < .0001). The novel combination of these markers results in extremely accurate risk scores, which may serve as the basis for the development of true surrogate markers of disease progression.
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