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  • Title: Global tuberculosis incidence and mortality during 1990-2000.
    Author: Dolin PJ, Raviglione MC, Kochi A.
    Journal: Bull World Health Organ; 1994; 72(2):213-20. PubMed ID: 8205640.
    Abstract:
    Forecasts of tuberculosis morbidity and mortality are presented for the decade 1990-99. An estimated 88 million new cases of tuberculosis, of which 8 million will be attributable to HIV infection, will occur in the world during the decade; 30 million people are predicted to die of tuberculosis in the same period, including 2.9 million attributable to HIV infection. The number of new tuberculosis cases occurring each year is predicted to increase from 7.5 million (143 cases per 100,000) in 1990 to 8.8 million (152 per 100,000) in 1995 and 10.2 million (163 per 100,000) in the year 2000. In 1990, 2.5 million persons were estimated to have died of tuberculosis; at the same level of availability of treatment, it is predicted that 3.0 million tuberculosis deaths will occur in 1995 and 3.5 million in 2000. Demographic factors, such as population growth and changes in the age structure of populations, will account for 79.5% of the predicted increases in new cases. Age-specific incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa are increasing due to the HIV epidemic and will account for the remaining 20.5% of the forecast increase in new cases. In WHO's South-East Asian Region and in Central and South America the age-specific incidence rates are expected to fall during 1990-2000, but at a slower rate than in previous years because of the expected increase in HIV seroprevalence.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) Over the period 1990-99, an estimated 88 million new cases of tuberculosis (TB) will occur worldwide, of which 8 million will be attributable to HIV infection. 30 million people are predicted to die of TB over the period, including 2.9 million attributable to HIV infection. Given a constant level of treatment availability, the numbers of new cases and deaths will both increase each year over the period. Demographic factors such as population growth and changes in the age structure of populations will account for 79.5% of the predicted increases in new cases. Age-specific incidence rates in sub-Saharan Africa, however, are increasing due to the HIV epidemic and will account for the remaining 20.5% of the forecast increase in new cases. In the World Health Organization's Southeast Asia region and in Central and South America, age-specific incidence rates are expected to fall during 1990-2000, but at a slower rate than in previous years because of the expected increase in HIV seroprevalence. Finally, in the Western Pacific and Eastern Mediterranean regions, intervention strategies should reduce the age-specific incidence rates during the period, but population growth will fuel an increase in the total number of new cases until the year 2000.
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