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  • Title: [Prognostic factors of early mortality in the 1st episode of hemorrhage caused by esophageal varices].
    Author: Campo R, Brullet E, Montserrat A, Calvet X, Dalmau B, Gil M, Güell J, Mas P.
    Journal: Rev Esp Enferm Dig; 1996 Jun; 88(6):395-9. PubMed ID: 8755319.
    Abstract:
    AIM: To assess the prognostic factors of early mortality in cirrhotic patients with the first variceal bleeding episode. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty-five cirrhotic patients with endoscopic evidence of variceal bleeding treated with sclerotherapy during emergent endoscopy were included. RESULTS: Permanent hemostasis was obtained in 36 patients (65.5%). Fourteen (25.4%) patients died within six weeks of the bleeding episode. Twenty-four variables obtained at admission and in the following days were compared between patients who survived (n = 41), and died (n = 14). In the univariate analysis the following variables were related to early mortality: prothrombin ratio (p = 0.04), the presence of ascites (p = 0.004) and encephalopathy (p = 0.06), albumin (p = 0.01), Child-Pugh score (p = 0.0003), hemostasis during endoscopy (p = 0.002), absence of rebleeding at 24 hours (p = 0.01) and early rebleeding (within five days after the bleeding episode) (p = 0.006). Multiple logistic regression identified the Child-Pugh score (OR 11.86, CI 95% 2.54-55.48; p = 0.001) and early rebleeding (OR 6.27, CI 95% 1.29-30.44; p = 0.02) as prognostic independent factors of early mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of hepatic failure and early rebleeding are prognostic independent factors of early mortality in cirrhotic patients after the first variceal bleeding episode.
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