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  • Title: Predictive validity of the Pra instrument among older recipients of managed care.
    Author: Pacala JT, Boult C, Reed RL, Aliberti E.
    Journal: J Am Geriatr Soc; 1997 May; 45(5):614-7. PubMed ID: 9158585.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To determine the validity of the Pra instrument in predicting the use of health-related services by older enrollees in a managed care plan. DESIGN: Cohort study. At baseline, a survey was administered by mail. Responses were entered into the Pra formula to estimate each person's probability of using health-related services heavily in the future. The subjects' use of services during the following year was monitored through claims submitted to their managed care organization. SETTING: Urban and suburban areas of Southern California. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 65 years and older enrolled in a Medicare risk health plan (n = 6802). MEASUREMENTS: Baseline data included demographic, health-related, social, functional, and previous-use-of-service characteristics. Follow-up data included the use of and claims for payment for inpatient hospital care, emergency room services, nursing home services, home care, ambulance services, outpatient surgery, and durable medical equipment. RESULTS: High-risk subjects (highest quartile of Pra values) incurred hospital admissions and claims that were 2.5 and 2.7 times greater than those of low-risk subjects (lower three quartiles). CONCLUSIONS: The Pra formula is recommended for screening older adults enrolled in managed care organizations (as well as for screening those in the fee-for-service environment). It identifies older people who may benefit from interventions designed to avert health crises and the need for expensive care.
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