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  • Title: Economic evaluation of risks to producers who use milk residue testing programs.
    Author: Slenning BD, Gardner IA.
    Journal: J Am Vet Med Assoc; 1997 Aug 15; 211(4):419-27. PubMed ID: 9267502.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the decision to test for milk antimicrobial residues in milk from dairy cows treated with procaine penicillin G (PPG). DESIGN: Economic-decision analysis after stochastic simulation. SAMPLE POPULATION: 1,000 computer-simulated cows/model. PROCEDURE: Meta-analysis of the Food Animal Residue Avoidance Databank was used to generate PPG disappearance curves for cows given single PPG treatments, IM, of 6,600 U/kg (3,000 U/lb) of body weight or 26,400 U/kg (12,000 U/lb), and multiple treatments at 26,400 U/kg (12,000 U/lb), IM. These curves were entered into 1,000-replication stochastic pharmacokinetic models, generating population-level milk PPG profiles for each treatment group for each day after treatment, which were subjected to economic-decision analyses of feasibility of residue testing. The model was evaluated for changes in herd size, proportion of herd available for testing, milk production, test price, test sensitivity/specificity, and withdrawal periods. RESULTS: For both single-treatment groups, a 2-day withdrawal period avoided violative residues. However, nearly two thirds of the cows risked false identification for violative residues. For the multiple-treated group, nearly 40% had violative residues after a 5-day withdrawal period, and an additional 10 to 15% risked false identification for violative residues. Economic analysis yielded a decision against testing; mean cost was $2 (ie, 5% more than the mean cost of not testing). CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Complex dynamics of current milk residue tests discourage practitioners from recommending procedures to clients. In general, increases in herd size, milk production, proportion of a herd available for testing, or milk price will increase the value of testing. Increasing test sensitivity decreases its desirability to producers.
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