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  • Title: Prediction of birth weights from body weights of newborns.
    Author: Sarma KV, Rao MV, Damayanthi K, Ravindranath M.
    Journal: Indian Pediatr; 1997 May; 34(5):402-5. PubMed ID: 9332114.
    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of prediction of birth weights from body weights of newborns till six days after birth. DESIGN: Prospective follow-up. SETTING: Four villages near Hyderabad. METHODS: Weights of 47 newborns were recorded daily from the day of birth for seven days. The birth weights were regressed on the weights of the babies taken on the 2nd day to the 7th day. Specificity and sensitivity of the predicted birth weights to arrive at the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) were computed. RESULTS: The co-efficient of determination (R-square) for between the days measurements decreased from 95% on the second day to 86% on seventh day with an increase in the standard error of the estimate from 84 g to 154 g. Based on the "predicted birth weights", the prevalence of LBW in the community was arrived at and compared with the actual observation. The sensitivity and specificity of these regression equations was high and ranged from 0.95 to 0.85 and 0.96 to 0.93, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In situations where the birth weight cannot be recorded, weight of the baby taken within the first week after birth may be reliably utilized to assess the "birth weight", particularly in relation to categorization as LBW. This methodology can serve as a tool to monitor various developmental programs aimed at improving birth weights. A prospective study conducted in 4 villages near Hyderabad, India, indicated that infant weight taken within the first week after birth can be used as a predictor of birth weight in situations where birth weight is not recorded. Included in the study were 47 full-term, home delivery infants who were weighed within 24 hours of birth. Subsequently, these infants were weighed every day at a fixed tine for the next 6 days and separate linear regression lines were fitted to predict birth weight. Mean birth weight steadily declined from 2528 g on day 1 to 2505 g on day 3 and gradually increased to 2647 g by day 7. The coefficient of determination for between the days measurements decreased from 95% on day 2 to 86% on day 7, with an increase in the standard error of the estimate from 84 g to 154 g. Comparison of the estimated birth weight with that actually recorded revealed a sensitivity of 0.85-0.95 and a specificity of 0.93-0.96. Analysis of variance--with birth weight as the dependent variable and subsequent days' body weight, one at a time, as independent the variable--resulted in an F value of 1044.8 and a power of 0.99 for day 2 and 0.98 for day 7. These findings confirm that this method can be used to fill in gaps in birth weight data if necessary with high efficiency. Other uses of this methodology include estimation of the prevalence of low birth weight, identification of children at risk, and the monitoring of developmental and supplementary feeding programs for pregnant women.
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